“I am afraid that the first six months of 2009 are going to be a problem worldwide, including in Asia and Southeast Asia,” Zoellick told a news conference during a visit to Singapore.

The Bank said in a report last week that the Asia-Pacific region remained reasonably well-placed to weather the global slowdown but will see growth ease to 5.3 percent in 2009 from 7.0 percent this year.

It said the global economy would expand a mere 0.9 percent next year and trade volume would fall 2.1 percent, the first drop in 26 years.

“In the discussions that I have had with people around the world, no one has a very good prediction for the length and depth of this crisis,” Zoellick said.

Government monetary and fiscal policy, as well as open trade systems, will determine whether the situation can improve later next year, he said.

“I am particularly concerned about the rising dangers of protectionism,” he added, describing as “unfortunate” the difficulties encountered during the Doha Round of talks on a new global trade pact.

“The international system needs to stay on offense on trade because protectionist forces will raise their heads,” he said.

The so-called Doha talks started at the end of 2001 in the Qatari capital. They aim to boost international commerce by removing trade barriers and subsidies, but a deal has proved elusive.

Developing countries, including China and India, want the industrialized world to scrap agricultural subsidies, while Western powers are seeking greater access for their products in emerging markets.

“Whatever parties can do to try to get the Doha Round back on track would be vitally important,” Zoellick said later at a dialogue session with students from a local university.

“This financial, economic and unemployment problem is serious enough.

“If we start to trigger a round of protectionism, as you saw in the 1930s, it could deepen (the global crisis).”

Pascal Lamy, the head of the World Trade Organization (WTO), last Friday scrapped plans to hold a ministerial meeting on the trade talks, citing the “unacceptably high” risk of failure and dashing hopes that the long-delayed global trade pact could be clinched this month.

Zoellick, who was recently in China, said that the country’s leaders expected to see a decline in growth because of the global slowdown but that they were struck by the sharpness and the depth of the fall in exports.

The World Bank forecast 7.5 percent growth for China next year, which would be its slowest in nearly two decades.

Zoellick was in Singapore to sign a memorandum of understanding with the city-state to strengthen and expand collaboration on development assistance.

Source: AFP