US retail sales probably rose, output fell

Published: 12/04/2009 05:00

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US retail sales probably rose in March even as a drop in factory production and slower inflation signal the recession is far from over, economists said before reports this week.

Purchases increased 0.3 percent, the second gain in the last three months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before the Commerce Department’s April 14 retail report. Industrial production dropped 0.9 percent, the 14th decline in the last 15 months, figures from the Federal Reserve may show.

Tax refunds and money from President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan are giving American consumers a temporary lift, easing the pain caused by the highest unemployment rate in a quarter century, plunging wealth and a lack of credit. Companies from General Motors Corp. to Gap Inc. are relying on incentives and promotions to move merchandise, keeping inflation in check.

“We’re seeing a little bit of a bounce from the consumer after a horrendous holiday season,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., a New York forecasting firm. “The tax refunds have gotten to people in a timely fashion. Once that feeds through, then we’re left with the major negative of the labor market.”

Autos sold at a 9.9 million annual pace in March, up from 9.1 million the previous month that was the lowest since 1981, according to industry figures.

Source: Bloomberg

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