“Based on past experiences, post bombing the impact is usually on tourism and travel,” Pangestu said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Singapore Monday. “On investment and exports, in the past, there has not been a big effect.”

Indonesia’s economy grew 4.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 6.2 percent contraction for Malaysia and Thailand’s 7.1 percent slump. The US$433 billion economy may expand as much as 4 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund estimates.

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy cooled in the months following the October 2002 bombing in Bali, which killed 202 people. Growth eased to 4.75 percent in the quarter ended December 2002 from 5.2 percent in the previous three months, as tourism revenue for the year dropped 20 percent to $4.3 billion.

The pace of expansion also weakened in the wake of the August 2003 assault on the JW Marriott hotel in Jakarta and the second Bali bombing in October 2005, which saw a halving in the number of tourist arrivals on the island.

Indonesia’s foreign tourist arrivals may drop 14 percent to 5.5 million this year from a record 6.4 million last year after the Jakarta bombings, slashing revenue to $5.5 billion this year from $7.4 billion, Tourism Minister Jero Wacik said on July 18.

Source: Bloomberg