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Rising oil prices to boost GCC growth: survey

Published: 21/12/2009 05:00

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The economic growth of the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations will accelerate next year with international agencies predicting an increase in crude prices, a survey showed Monday.

The majority of the senior officials among 25 firms of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) surveyed are positive about growth and believe that only a major drop in crude prices can reverse the growth cycle, said the survey, conducted by the daily Emirates Business.

It noted that top executives, however, believe such fears are not backed by recent happenings, saying “On the contrary, higher oil prices can be seen on the horizon as good news.”

According to the survey, the Washington-based Energy Information Administration (EIA) has forecast that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices will weaken soon, falling to about 75 U.S. dollars per barrel next February, and then rising to about82 dollars per barrel by the end of 2010.

WTI crude oil spot prices averaged 78 dollars per barrel in November, more than 2 dollars higher than the previous month’s average, it said, adding that this increase reflected improving expectations of a global economic recovery and higher oil consumption.

In addition, Britain’s Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has also forecast a 21 percent rise in the average oil price, from 62 dollars a barrel this year to 75 dollars in 2010.

“A sharp fall in oil prices is not anticipated at this time and on the contrary, the average price of oil should be higher in 2010in comparison to 2009. (It will) translate to a bounce back in nominal GDP across the GCC in 2010 — that is very positive,” Giyas Gokkent, chief economist at the National Bank of Abu Dhabi, was quoted as saying.

The GCC, a reginal trade bloc created in 1981, comprises the Gulf states of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have about 45 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves.

VietNamNet/Xinhuanet

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